EMH'S Weekend Box Office Predictions 6/26. THE HANGOVER BEATS TRANSFORMERS (Just Kidding)
The big question this weekend is not whether or not Transformers will be number one, it is will it be the biggest opening in movie history?
Now, before we get crazy here. Let's set the ground rules. Do we want to count opening weekend as Friday, Saturday, and Sunday only? Or do we count the opening weekend as the day it opened through Sunday?
There is nothing wrong with releasing a movie on Wednesday to make more money. I get it. I support it if that's your thing. But, don't pee on my head and tell me it's raining. That is to say, don't tell me that a movie that has a five-day opening weekend is the equivalent of a movie that has a three-day opening. So, for this WEEKEND's predictions, the totals given are just the numbers for the three-day weekend. So if I say Transformers makes 50 million, it will have to make 50 million on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Wednesday and Thursday will not be included? Do we understand each other???
By the way, I think Year One and The Hangover will receive a slight boost from the fans who find Transformers sold out. No great prediction there, but it's worth noting.
Okay, that being said, let's get to it. My top five predictions for the weekend are as follows:
1. Transformers 80.0 million
2. The Proposal 25.5 million
3. The Hangover 22.4 million
4. Up 16.0 million
5. Year One 11.3 million
I feel as though I should clarify the Transformers thing one more time. I think its opening day take will be monstrous. DUH! However, I don't think it will match the record Dark Knight set last summer. Close, but no record. Too much Heath Ledger hype surrounded that release for the robots to overtake Dark Knight. If Shia had passed away, perhaps Transformers could dethrone it. Look for Transformers to make around 60 million. I'll say 58 million opening day.
I do think it will make around $170 million for its five-day weekend. This will undoubtedly be a tough hill for Harry Potter to climb. However, for those of you who remember my prediction of Potter beating Transformers at the box office, I am sticking to it. The robots will have the head start, favorable release (a few weeks after there had been no big, big action movies), and they will rake in big bucks during the holiday weekend that will come in its sophomore week. BUT, Potter has to words going for it. Correction, two letters: P.G. Also, the boy wizard has a wider overall demographic and appeals to both boys and girls.
The Proposal looks to have a solid second week, again with no real competition for the girie-girl demographic. The Hangover, furious I am picking Transformers to beat it, will still be very solid.
Up will enjoy one more big weekend before Ice Age comes along and freezes out the Pixar blockbuster. Don't feel bad Up, the Academy Awards announcement this week makes you an early front runner for a best picture nominee.
So what do you guys have to say about it?
I'm waiting,
EMH