Could MOANA Lose $100 Million at the Box Office? Disney May Need to Hit Pause on These Live-Action Remakes

Disney has spent the last decade proving that almost every animated classic can be turned into a live-action blockbuster. Sometimes that strategy prints money. Other times it leaves audiences wondering why the remake exists in the first place.

Unfortunately for Disney, Moana looks like it might be drifting into that second category. On paper, this should've been another easy win.

The original 2016 animated film became one of Disney's biggest modern franchises, dominated streaming, sold mountains of merchandise, and turned songs like "How Far I'll Go" into global anthems.

So how did the live-action version end up opening with a disappointing $43 million domestically and $95 million worldwide? The answer might be simpler than Disney wants to admit. Fans loved Moana. They just weren't asking for this movie.

Making matters worse, this wasn't a cheap gamble. The film reportedly carried a massive $250 million production budget, with another estimated $120 million spent on marketing.

That's an enormous investment for a movie that stumbled right out of the gate. Unless it finds incredible legs over the coming weeks, Moana could wind up losing well over $100 million during its theatrical run.

As analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations explained: "Disney’s strategy is dependent on whether audiences see the remake as an event or a duplicate. This was the latter. People wanted Moana 3, not a remake of the original."

That pretty much sums up the problem. Disney built the modern live-action remake machine with movies like Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Aladdin, Cinderella, The Little Mermaid, Mulan, Dumbo, and Lady and the Tramp.

Some became billion-dollar juggernauts. Others... well... let's just say audiences weren't exactly racing back for repeat viewings.

What's becoming clear is that simply recreating an animated movie scene-for-scene isn't enough anymore. Especially when the original is sitting on Disney+ waiting to be watched whenever someone feels nostalgic.

Ironically, Disney just proved this formula can still work. Last year's live-action Lilo & Stitch crossed the billion-dollar mark worldwide despite adapting a movie released in 2002. That remake arrived after more than two decades, giving an entire generation time to grow up and introduce the story to their own kids.

Moana didn't have that luxury. Yes, the original premiered ten years ago, but audiences also got Moana 2 just two years ago after Disney transformed what started as a Disney+ series into a theatrical sequel. That's a lot of Moana in a very short amount of time.

It's hard to miss something when it barely left. David A. Gross, who runs the FranchiseRe movie consulting firm, believes Disney may have rushed the timing.

"The takeaway for Disney has to be, how long does it take for an animated film to become a classic? As we just saw, it’s not about how successful the last film in the series is. It takes time to be a classic, not just success."

That's an important distinction. Popularity isn't the same thing as nostalgia. One gets people talking. The other gets them buying movie tickets.

Even stranger is that the Moana brand itself couldn't be healthier. The original animated film remains the most-watched movie on Disney+, while Moana 2 sailed past the $1 billion mark worldwide.

Merchandise continues flying off shelves, with more than 22 million toys sold since 2016. The franchise has inspired attractions across more than 40 Disney parks and generated an incredible 26 billion music streams, including 4.8 billion plays of "How Far I'll Go."

This franchise isn't broken. The remake simply didn't feel necessary. Critics weren't exactly impressed either, with many calling it a shot-for-shot recreation of the animated film. Audiences have been kinder, giving it an "A-" CinemaScore, suggesting word-of-mouth could help soften the blow.

Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak, thinks the coming weeks will tell the real story. "Opening weekend is important, but Moana is going to be about long-term playability. That means you don’t want to see a 60-70% second-weekend drop."

Disney would certainly welcome a repeat of Mufasa, which recovered from a slow opening to earn $722 million worldwide. But the road ahead for Moana looks considerably rougher.

The movie now has to compete with Toy Story 5, Universal's Minions & Monsters, and premium screens are already being handed over to The Odyssey. Those giant IMAX and premium format tickets make a huge difference for expensive blockbusters trying to claw their way toward profitability.

And speaking of profitability... Because theaters keep roughly half of every ticket sold, Moana reportedly needs around $600 million globally just to break even.

That's a tall mountain to climb after a $95 million worldwide debut. If the film follows a similar path to Snow White, which finished with just $205 million worldwide against its own $250 million production budget, Disney could be staring at theatrical losses north of $100 million.

Budget discipline also deserves a serious conversation. Dwayne Johnson reportedly earned close to $30 million between starring as Maui and producing the film, along with his usual backend participation. Production delays caused by the 2023 labor strikes added even more costs.

Compare that to Lilo & Stitch, which reportedly cost around $100 million and didn't rely on massive star salaries. One movie became a billion-dollar hit. The other is trying to avoid becoming one of Disney's biggest live-action disappointments.

That's not a coincidence. Of course, Disney doesn't judge these movies solely by ticket sales. Franchises like Moana feed merchandise, theme parks, Disney+, music, licensing, and countless other revenue streams. The character isn't going anywhere, and reports already indicate a third animated film is in development.

But maybe Disney should rethink how often it revisits these worlds. Gross notes that Disney has traditionally waited an average of 27 years before remaking its animated classics. That gap helped turn films like Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King into billion-dollar events.

As Gross explained: "During that time, the remakes added an entirely new audience. It’s been a very successful strategy."

There's also a danger in waiting too long. Movies like Snow White and Dumbo struggled because newer generations simply don't have the same emotional connection to those stories anymore.

So there really is a sweet spot. That could explain why Disney is moving ahead with a live-action Tangled, based on the 2010 animated hit, while reportedly focusing future efforts on a Lilo & Stitch sequel and spinoffs centered on Cinderella's stepsisters and Gaston from Beauty and the Beast.

Dergarabedian doesn't think Disney will abandon the remake strategy anytime soon. "Disney will keep making these. For every one that doesn’t do well, there will be a Lilo & Stitch that sets the world on fire. The studio just has to keep the budgets in line."

He's probably right. The remakes aren't going away. But Moana might become the movie Disney points to during future planning meetings whenever someone pitches remaking a beloved animated film that audiences literally just watched a couple of years ago.

Sometimes the best way to keep the magic alive isn't to remake it as fast as possible. Sometimes it's letting people miss it first.