Even if Marvel's THUNDERBOLTS* is a Great Movie It Still Might Not Be a Box Office Hit
The 2025 box office has been, well… quiet. Apart from The Minecraft Movie smashing expectations, there hasn’t been a lot of loud excitement coming from theaters. That’s why eyes are locked on Thunderbolts*, Marvel’s next big swing and the final film in Phase Five.
It hits theaters May 2nd, and while the buzz around the film is growing as it’s suggested to be one of the best Marvel movie in years, the box office projections are a little more… reserved.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, the movie is currently tracking to open between $63–77 million domestically, with $70 million being the “target number.” That's not disastrous, but in Marvel terms, it’s soft. Especially when you stack it against Captain America: Brave New World, which pulled in $88.8 million in its first three days, or even pandemic-era releases like Black Widow ($80.3M), Shang-Chi ($75.3M), and Eternals ($71.2M).
And yet, Thunderbolts* could still be great. Reports from a test screening were surprisingly positive, some even compared it to the reception Guardians of the Galaxy got before it became a fan favorite. That’s no small praise.
The vibe is that Thunderbolts* might actually surprise people in the best way. Plus, Marvel fans know this isn’t just a one-off. This film sets the stage for Avengers: Doomsday, and several characters from this movie are confirmed to return. It’s part of the larger puzzle now, and that matters.
The marketing machine is kicking into high gear, with tickets already on sale and trailers getting solid engagement. But projections are projections, and they don’t always tell the full story. Just look at The Minecraft Movie, it was supposed to open around $65 million. It blew that number away with a $162.7 million debut. Sometimes, audiences just show up.
What Thunderbolts* has going for it, aside from the Marvel brand, is timing. It’ll be the biggest release for a couple of weeks after it opens. That breathing room is rare these days. But the clock starts ticking quickly, with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Disney’s Lilo & Stitch live-action remake both arriving later in May.
Marvel does need a win here. Brave New World didn’t land the way the studio hoped, and the Multiverse Saga is looking for momentum. Thunderbolts* has the ingredients of a strong film with a character-driven cast, franchise tie-ins, promising early reactions. But whether that’s enough to get general audiences in theaters is still unclear.