SUPERGIRL Tracking Below THE FLASH at the Box Office Despite Strong Early Reactions
The latest box office projections for Supergirl are painting an interesting picture for the future of James Gunn and Peter Safran’s DC Universe.
According to the National Research Group, as reported by Puck News’ Matthew Belloni, the latest tracking numbers for Supergirl have slipped once again. Belloni shared: "Pre-release tracking for SUPERGIRL has come down again, now sitting at $51M domestic for the 3-day opening."
If those projections hold, Supergirl would actually open below 2023’s The Flash, which debuted with $55 million domestically before becoming one of the most disappointing theatrical releases in DC’s history.
While The Flash arrived carrying enormous expectations, a massive budget, and years of hype, Supergirl is operating on a much different scale. Belloni pointed out: "SUPERMAN debuted to $125M last summer on much larger production and marketing budget."
Comparing Supergirl directly to Superman doesn't tell the full story. The DCU’s second major film wasn’t designed to be the franchise’s flagship event. Instead, it serves as the next chapter in a larger universe that officially launched on the big screen with Superman after being introduced through Creature Commandos and Peacemaker Season 2.
And unlike The Flash, which arrived during the final days of the DCEU with audiences fully aware a reboot was on the horizon, Supergirl has the advantage of being part of a fresh universe that is still building momentum.
The comparison to The Flash is also somewhat misleading when you consider how differently the two projects have been received so far. The Ezra Miller-led film struggled with criticism aimed at its heavy reliance on fan service, uneven storytelling, and action sequences that failed to impress audiences. It also faced the challenge of existing in a cinematic universe that was essentially ending.
Meanwhile, the early word surrounding Supergirl has been strong. Initial reactions from press screenings have been positive, with several viewers drawing comparisons to films like Mad Max: Fury Road and Guardians of the Galaxy.
Those are the kinds of comparisons DC fans have been hoping to hear, especially for a character who is finally getting a major spotlight in the new DCU.
That positive reception could end up playing a significant role once audiences get their chance to see the movie. Strong reviews and enthusiastic word-of-mouth have rescued plenty of films from soft tracking numbers in the past.
Even if the current projection lands exactly where analysts expect, a $51 million opening doesn't automatically signal trouble. The real test will be how the film holds in the weeks that follow and whether audiences embrace Kara Zor-El as one of the new DCU’s central heroes.
The next few years will be crucial for Gunn and Safran’s long-term plans. After Supergirl, the DCU will take a sharp turn into horror territory with Clayface, while Matt Reeves continues developing his separate Elseworlds franchise with The Batman: Part II set to hit theaters next October.
For now, Supergirl appears headed for an opening weekend that may not match The Flash domestically. Whether that ends up being a disappointment or a perfectly acceptable result will likely depend on what matters more: the opening weekend number or the foundation it helps build for the future of the DCU.