THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU Gears Up for $80M+ Opening as STAR WARS Returns to Theaters
The galaxy far, far away is finally heading back to theaters, and the early numbers are in. The Mandalorian and Grogu is shaping up for a strong Memorial Day debut, with projections currently pointing to an $80 million-plus four-day opening in the U.S.
It’s the first Star Wars movie to hit the big screen in seven years, and while the forecast isn’t hitting the usual $100M+ territory the franchise has seen in the past, there’s still plenty of runway left for this one to climb.
At the moment, the film is skewing toward men over 25, which isn’t surprising given the fanbase of The Mandalorian. But Disney clearly has its sights set on pulling in families as the release date approaches on May 22.
One of the big promotional pushes will land on May 4, Star Wars Day, when IMAX theaters will screen the first 19 minutes of the film. That’s a pretty solid way to get fans hyped and give casual audiences a reason to show up early.
The movie is directed by Jon Favreau, who also co-wrote and produced the project alongside Dave Filoni. The duo has already proven they know how to tell stories in this corner of the universe, and now they’re taking their Disney+ success to the theatrical stage in a big way.
This is the first time a Disney+ series has made the jump to a full theatrical feature. The Mandalorian has been one of the platform’s biggest hits, pulling in over a billion hours streamed. That kind of engagement gives Disney a solid foundation to build from, even if translating streaming success into box office dollars isn’t always a sure thing.
Industry comparisons being tossed around include 2009’s Star Trek, which opened to $75.2 million, and Hobbs & Shaw, which debuted at $60 million. Another interesting benchmark is Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which pulled in $79 million over last year’s Memorial Day weekend. Right now, audience interest in The Mandalorian and Grogu is tracking in a similar range.
Even the lower end of Star Wars openings sits above the current projections. Solo: A Star Wars Story holds the record for the smallest debut among the live-action films with $103 million over Memorial Day in 2018.
That film eventually finished with $213.7 million domestically and $392.9 million worldwide, though it faced a rocky road leading up to release, including a director shake-up that saw Phil Lord and Christopher Miller replaced by Ron Howard.
Of course, Memorial Day weekend itself has become a major box office battleground. Last year saw Lilo & Stitch explode with a $182 million opening, contributing to a record-breaking $330 million holiday weekend alongside Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That sets a high bar, but it also shows how much potential there is if the right movie connects.
Leading the charge in The Mandalorian and Grogu is Pedro Pascal, returning as Din Djarin, joined by an great lineup that includes Sigourney Weaver, Jeremy Allen White, and yes, even Martin Scorsese.
It’s still early days for tracking, and a lot can shift as marketing ramps up. But one thing’s clear. Star Wars is back on the big screen, and even a “modest” opening by its standards is still a huge event for the industry.
Fans are ready to see Din and Grogu take their story beyond the small screen, and Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be a pretty exciting ride.
Source: Deadline