THUNDERBOLTS* Fails to Break Even at the Box Office; Is Marvel Studios Recalibrating Its Playbook?
Well, the numbers are in for Marvel’s Thunderbolts*, and they don’t look great. Despite strong reviews and being framed by Disney CEO Bob Iger as the poster child of Marvel’s "quality over quantity" comeback, the film is now officially set to not break even at the global box office.
That’s got to be a big sting for Marvel and Disney, and it also raises a bigger question… is Marvel Studios finally recalibrating its playbook?
After Captain America: Brave New World stumbled earlier this year following a rocky post-production process, (and expensive reshoots), all eyes turned to Thunderbolts* to stabilize Marvel’s current trajectory.
Iger even called it the “first and best” example of Marvel’s refreshed focus, so the stakes were high. Six weeks in, though, the movie has only pulled in $371 million worldwide, and to break even, it needed to hit $425 million.
To be fair, Marvel did scale things down here. According to Variety, the studio was cautious going in: the cast was largely composed of characters from Black Widow and The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, both of which were released in that weird pandemic-era blur of streaming and theatrical uncertainty.
The production budget was trimmed to $180 million, and the marketing spend capped at $100 million, which was lower than Marvel’s usual blockbuster budgets.
Still, it wasn’t enough.
Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock points out the core issue: “These lower-tier comic book movies aren’t cinematic slam dunks anymore. Thunderbolts* wrapping up after just a month in theaters is also a concern. These films aren’t legging out like previous iterations.”
That might be the most telling sign of where superhero fatigue is landing hardest, on the characters who aren’t household names. Marvel dominated the Infinity Saga era with 19 of its 22 films crossing the $500 million global mark. Now? Only 6 of the 13 Multiverse Saga entries have done the same. That’s a major drop-off.
So what’s next? The article hints at a strategic pivot, and it looks like Marvel’s done playing it safe with B-tier characters. The studio’s upcoming slate is stacked with heavy hitters:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 2026)
Avengers: Doomsday and Spider-Man 4 (2026)
Avengers: Secret Wars (2027)
A mystery film in July 2027
Plus, development continues on X-Men and Black Panther sequels
Meanwhile, solo projects like Blade are still stuck in development purgatory.
As Variety puts it: “Marvel seems to be embracing a go-big-or-go-home mentality.” The global box office isn’t what it used to be. Superhero saturation is real. And audiences are showing up for the icons, not the ensemble leftovers.
I understand that, but at the same time, not ever Marvel movie needs to have a $100 million budget! They could be making great smaller scale film for far less that will pull in a profit.
Regardless, Marvel has built a machine that doesn’t rely on just box office numbers. Between Disney+, merchandise, and home release markets, the studio can weather a few misfires. But, unfortunatley, this may scare off Marvel from experimenting with mid-tier team-ups and deep-cut solo runs might be winding down.
I just think that can and should still make those movie, but with lower budgets. Also, they don’t have to connect with the larger universe. They can be one and done stories.
The Multiverse Saga still has some big swings ahead, but I imagine things are going to change with the kinds of films they make and the characters they play with,, and I’m not excited about it.
What are your thoughts?