Unsourced Rumors vs. Official Denials

Yesterday, we reported on a rumor about Spider-Man finally joining the Marvel cineverse. The site we sourced was Latino-Review, which brought on a few moans from readers. A few of the most common things I read were along the lines of "what's the name of the source" and "those guys have no credibility." There is a big reason why I trust reports/scoops coming from Latino-Review, and that requires a bit of disclosure on my part. First, I've been working on a documentary called Movie Blog Movie for a few years, and I've been able to interview the team behind Latino-Review. They have shared with me who they get their intelligence from and how the team trades and verifies information. Finally, because I'm making a documentary I'm also keeping score, which means I know they have more wins than losses.

Now that I've gone out of my way to defend a single colleague, let me drop a bit of information that I've observed on movie rumor reporting in general.

Unnamed Sources

Rumors about movies by their very nature can never have a named source, because if there were a named source then it wouldn't be a rumor.

If you want a clue on who the source might be, you need to think about when it was leaked and what type of information it is. If it's a casting rumor, the list of people with that kind of information is really small — the actor, the talent agency, the producer, the director, the casting agent. Those leaks can, for example, come from a powerful producer essentially "calling dibs" on an actor's schedule.

Motivation can give you some clues as well. For example, leaked story details while a script is in development could come from a writer trying to see if his ideas will piss off fans. Rumors about the death or recasting of a character could leak from a studio executive trying to have leverage in negotiating an actor's contract down.

While not precise, knowing who could have access to that information at that time and who benefits from it can help narrow down where the leak came from.

Because I know this, the studios know this, and our colleagues know this, sometimes information (usually plot details) is held for months in an effort to protect the identity of sources.

Official Subterfuge

Representatives of actors and the production studios will always deny rumors, and it's a tack they have to take. Confirming rumors only lends the sites that break that news more credibility. Depending on the timing of an official announcement, studios will often elect to say nothing. So when is a denial real and when is it subterfuge? Again, it comes back to timing and motivation.

Let's take Sony Pictures and their recent "Spider-Man in the Marvel cineverse" denial. We know parent company Sony wants the deal to happen - hell, it sounds like the internet at large wants it to happen. What does Sony gain by putting out a denial? What does Marvel Studios gain from remaining silent? Until an official announcement about Amazing Spider-Man 3 comes out or Marvel says they tried and it didn't happen, I don't think the denial has much credibility.

Truth - Time = Final Product

Ultimately, the reason reports from credible sites don't show themselves in the final deal/movie is because they are a snapshot of things as they are and not of how they will be. The earlier in development, the more likely things will change. This is also why some sites sit on information for so long, letting things develop more to make sure the trajectory of the movie or deal won't change.

Who's Credible?

The trades like Variety and The Wrap are the closest you can get to an official announcement. After that there are the blogs (in alphabetical order) Badass Digest, HitFix, and Latino-Review. The reason those blogs are so credible is the number of times they have been sourced by the trades. Finally, when a big scoop comes out, the trades will contact their sources to see if it's credible before reporting, which is how these "rumors" show up everywhere.

I hope I haven't been too vague and have given enough insight to how things operate when it comes to reporting movie rumors.